Risk of Thromboembolism in Non-Rheumatic Atrial Fibrillation
ACC/AHA/ESC guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation:
executive summary. J Am Coll Cardiol 2001;38:1231–65)
Thromboembolic Risk in Chronic Atrial
Fibrillation |
| High Risk |
Moderate Risk |
Low Risk |
| see below for SPAF III and AFFIRM
trials' criteria |
No high risk features |
No high or moderate risk features and aged less than 65
years |
| |
Those who would otherwise be at low risk but are aged more
than 65 years |
|
| |
Probably includes those without high risk features but with
well controlled hypertension or with IHD or with diabetes |
|
| High Risk: Comparison of AFFIRM and SPAF III entry
criteria |
| AFFIRM (all at least 65 years of age (average 70 years) and
with at least one of the following: |
SPAF III (average age~71 years) with at least one of the
following: |
| Hypertension |
Systolic pressure greater than 160mmHg |
| Congestive heart failure |
Congestive heart failure |
| Ejection fraction less than 40 percent |
Poor LV systolic function |
| LV fractional shortening less than 25% |
LV fractional shortening less than 25% |
| Prior TIA or stroke |
Prior thromboembolism |
| LA greater than 5.0cm |
|
|
Females aged over 75 years |
The CHADS2 scoring system is one of the more recent attempts to estimate the risk of stroke. The table below describes the factors that are assessed to derive the score.
| Risk Factors |
Score |
| C- recent Congestive heart failure | 1 |
| H- Hypertension | 1 |
| A- Age>75 years | 1 |
| D- Diabetes | 1 |
| S2- Stroke or history of TIA | 2 |
The risk of stroke increases with higher scores. High risk can be defined as
a CHADS2 score of three or greater. However, those with lower score are still at
"moderate risk" and may obtain significant benefit from anticoagulation therapy.
Hitesh Patel, Cardiologist
19th March, 2007
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