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Atrial Fibrillation

Risk of Thromboembolism in Non-Rheumatic Atrial Fibrillation

ACC/AHA/ESC guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation: executive summary. J Am Coll Cardiol 2001;38:1231–65)

Thromboembolic Risk in Chronic Atrial Fibrillation
High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk
see below for SPAF III and AFFIRM trials' criteria No high risk features No high or moderate risk features and aged less than 65 years
  Those who would otherwise be at low risk but are aged more than 65 years  
  Probably includes those without high risk features but with well controlled hypertension or with IHD or with diabetes  

High Risk: Comparison of AFFIRM and SPAF III entry criteria
AFFIRM (all at least 65 years of age (average 70 years) and with at least one of the following: SPAF III (average age~71 years) with at least one of the following:
Hypertension Systolic pressure greater than 160mmHg
Congestive heart failure Congestive heart failure
Ejection fraction less than 40 percent Poor LV systolic function
LV fractional shortening less than 25% LV fractional shortening less than 25%
Prior TIA or stroke Prior thromboembolism
LA greater than 5.0cm
Females aged over 75 years

The CHADS2 scoring system is one of the more recent attempts to estimate the risk of stroke. The table below describes the factors that are assessed to derive the score.
Risk Factors Score
C- recent Congestive heart failure1
H- Hypertension1
A- Age>75 years1
D- Diabetes1
S2- Stroke or history of TIA2

The risk of stroke increases with higher scores. High risk can be defined as a CHADS2 score of three or greater. However, those with lower score are still at "moderate risk" and may obtain significant benefit from anticoagulation therapy.

Hitesh Patel, Cardiologist
19th March, 2007

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